European Central Bank

View of the Day: Why the European Central Bank is right

The European Central Bank is ahead of the policy curve rather than behind it, and the euro will ultimately benefit from the ECB’s reluctance to adopt unconventional stimulus measures, according to Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider FX.
“ECB policymakers are among the few who see the futility of believing that monetarism can fight a crisis caused by excess liquidity and debt accumulation by churning out more of it,” he says.
Markets must put aside the notion that western economies need to return to the state they were in for much of the past two or three decades, Mr Gallo says.

“This idea ignores the fact that the strong growth and low inflation seen for much of this period was a credit-driven illusion induced by deficit nations like the US and UK.”
He points to historical precedents where printing money, now under the guise of “quantitative easing” or “credit easing”, has failed.
“It is absurd to assume that the exponential growth in the monetary base will not eventually produce nasty side effects. The flood of cheap goods from developing nations is the main reason that the historical link between inflation and the supply of money has been weak.
“Although the euro faces huge challenges ahead, the architects of monetary union clearly anticipated a new paradigm where economic growth had to be procured by means other than a flow of cheap credit – namely, price stability.”


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